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Report Date: January 2018
Long-term forecast for the US stock market and economy. Immediately following the big downturn we saw US equities plumb last January, Dr. Janda and Eric talked about how the year would progress with a big correction later in the year that would formally the a major bear market in the US stock market. Events of the past 3 months fit my forecast. This is going to be a multi-phase bear market. The carnage we saw from Oct. through most of Dec. is the first phase. For now, markets will move higher given more dovish rhetoric and “jawboning” talking up markets by the Federal Reserve, along with the dive we have seen across the long duration end of the interest rate yield curve.
The latter is largely the response of investors positioning their portfolios ahead of a recession in the US economy (and more visible in other countries around the world too – even China massively slowing). As the US economy dives, bonds are seen as shelter and that rush to buy more bonds pushed up bond prices and inversely, sent interest rates down, given more flexibility and liquidity to stock market speculators. Adding all this up translates into what will likely be a bear market bounce and then very chopping trading through most of January and a downward bias throughout 2019.
Gold and the rest of the precious metals complex experienced about 4 months more pain than I thought we’d see, but we finally bottomed last August. Gold is going to rip past $1400 this year in the very least. Major long-term cycles have finally turned: the US economy, the US stock market and the inverse relationship it has with gold.
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